Match predictor: who would win?
Choose two national teams to see win, draw and loss chances from Elo ratings, calibrated on real international results since 1990.
Draw
How the predictor works
Each team's strength is its current Elo rating, recalculated after every international match. The difference between the two ratings, plus 100 points for the home side unless the venue is neutral, is compared with every international played since 1990 that had a similar rating gap. The percentages show how often those matches ended in a home win, a draw or an away win.
It is a statistical guide based on past results, not a betting tip: injuries, line-ups and motivation are not included. Read how Elo ratings work.