Long journeys, heat, altitude and passionate crowds: playing away in Africa is famously hard. We measured how big home advantage really is, using every international in our database.
The headline numbers
When two African teams meet at a non-neutral venue, the home side wins 53% of matches, draws 26% and loses 21% (from 7,170 matches). Across all international football worldwide the home team wins 51% of non-neutral matches, so home advantage in African derbies is stronger than the global average.
Why playing at home helps
- Travel: flights between African capitals often require connections through other continents, so visiting teams arrive tired.
- Conditions: heat, humidity, altitude (as in Addis Ababa or Nairobi) and pitch quality favour teams used to them.
- Crowds: full stadiums create pressure on visitors and, studies suggest, on referees.
- Familiarity: home teams know their stadium, their routines and their supporters.
Is it shrinking?
The table by decade shows how the home win rate in matches between African teams has changed over time. Better travel, more players based in Europe and neutral venues for some qualifiers have all changed the picture.
What it means for predictions
Our match predictor and match previews add 100 Elo points to the home team, which matches the size of home advantage seen in the data. See how Elo ratings work.